September 28, 2009
(updated October 7, 2009)
As the regular season winds down our thoughts have to shift to the playoffs and what our strategies will be for winning a playoff fantasy league.
Our player pool is significantly smaller and good players on bad teams could turn out to be bad fantasy players. Teams will lose in the first round
and if you drafted a player that only played 3 or 4 games, you are at a significant disadvantage. Advice that I can give you is to have a set strategy.
What I've done this year is attempt to have a solid grasp on who will make the playoffs and determine which of them will make it the furthest.
To determine who can make it as far as possible in the playoffs I’ve looked at which teams have the best record in series since the all star break
combined with which team has the best pitching staff.
NY Yankees
Based on that criteria alone it’s hard to look past the Yankees as the clear favorite to come out of the American League. Since the all star break the
Yankees are 12-3-1 (wins-loses-ties) in overall series. Their losses come from Toronto, Chicago and Texas all teams who aren’t going to be in the post
season. Yankee mystique is in full effect this season as I’ve been witness to countless helmet throws from walk off homeruns. And it’s kind of uncomfortable
watching Arod pushing people aside trying to catch it.
Although bad lately A.J. Burnett has incredible stuff along with the experience of already winning a World Series. The 4.33 era and 1.40 whip are scary but
the 167 k's so far still show what he’s capable of doing. CC Sabathia has a 3.12 era and is 17-7 with a 1.12 whip. With 178 k's
he's arguably the top fantasy pitcher to be taken this postseason. The ageless wonder Andy Pettitte is 13-6 this year and always
seems to be finding ways to win. With the post season experience that this staff has, coupled with Hughes incredible play of late (3.14 era for the season) and Mo Rivera converting 40/41 save opportunities with
a 1.66 era it’s hard to not think the Yankees will win the AL pennant.
Offensively this team is built to score runs. Alex Rodriguez has a .409 obp, .287 batting average, 25 homeruns and 84 rbis. He also has missed 30 games.
It seems like a MVP candidate talk for Derek Jeter was a little premature, but his .399 obp and 26 stolen bases make it very easy for the rest of his teammates
to see quality pitches from opposing pitchers. Mark Teixeira is a beast, with stats like .380 obp, 35 homeruns and 112 rbis this guy is easily a top 5 fantasy
player this postseason. Honorable mentions go out to Nick Swisher who has a terrible batting average but still managed to have a .375 obp and 27 homeruns.
Heading into this season I was very low on Hideki Matsui but I can’t deny his 25 homeruns and 85 rbis. Bottom line is all of these players have incredible
obp’s meaning they’re always runners on base for opposing pitchers to worry about.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are a team who can also battle in all aspects of the game. John Lackey has a 3.47 era, 1.22 whip along with 131 k’s in 163 innings.
Jered Weaver’s 3.85 era, 15-6 record, 1.25 whip and 164k’s in 194 innings makes this work horse a coveted player heading into October. The question marks
about this staff come from Joe Saunders whose 4.75 era and worse whip put a lot of pressure on their offense to score runs when he pitches. Scott Kazmir, a
late season addition and Ervin Santana can’t be seriously counted on to produce any quality stats to help your fantasy team out. As a closer Fuentes has
converted 42 saves this year, but has an ugly 4.35 era and a 1.45 whip. His 72 strikeouts in 50 innings are very attractive, but it seems very lucky for those
horrid numbers yielding such a high amount of saves. Somehow though, he gets the job done and I can’t deny that I think the Angels play the Yankees in the ALCS.
Offensively this team is a lot of fun to watch. Vladimir Guerrero has a lot of life left in his bat. This year though has been a team effort. Chone Figgins has
a .400 obp, .301 batting average, 107 runs and 42 stolen bases so far. Bobby Abreu, the ageless wonder, continues to defy father time by putting up numbers like
.398 obp, .300 batting average, 96 rbis and 29 stolen bases. Torii Hunter is another guy who I feel like I’ve been watching for over 15 years, with a .380 obp,
.310 batting average, 22 homeruns, 83 rbis and 16 stolen bases, I just don’t want to face him.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are another team in the American League who has an incredible 1-2 starting pitching punch on top of an incredible closer who has won big games
before. Josh Beckett has been there before and with a 15-6 record, 3.80 era, 4 complete games and 187 strikeouts there is nothing suggesting that this guy
won’t do well in the postseason. John Lester continued his incredible storied career (beating cancer then throwing a no hitter) by posting a very respectable 13-7 record, 3.29 era and 211
strikeouts in 188 innings. Can Tim Wakefield be counted on again? For some reason I can’t say yes this year. But given a lead late in the game I feel
very confident in Jonathan Papelbon. I’ve seen that river dance before, so we all know he’s capable.
Since the all star break the Red Sox are 10-7-1. Their success rests on the shoulders of this potent offense. Jay Bay’s 33 homeruns, 93 runs
scored, 106 rbis and .386 obp has made many Red Sox fans forget about Manny Ramirez. David Ortiz got off to a horrendous start this
season but he has still ended up hitting 24 homeruns with 83 rbis. Quietly the Red Sox acquired Victor Martinez who after a disappointing 2008
season has hit 21 homeruns with 97 rbis. Kevin Youkilis has had an incredible season so far - .314 batting average, .421 obp, 25 homeruns, and 85 rbis make him a vital part of this offense. Table setter Dustin Pedroia has disappointed fantasy owners
following his MVP 2008 season, but still put up solid numbers. It seems like you can talk about every batter in this offense, and it’s hard to leave Jacoby Ellsbury out.
With 61 stolen bases, a .301 batting average and 81 runs scored, it’s hard to not think that the Sox are very capable of going far in the playoffs.
Minnesota Twins
Can the Twins continue their red hot September and shock the world? They had a magical run to overcome a 7 game deficit in September to win one of the craziest
and exciting games I’ve ever watched on Tuesday night. There are a handful of players who would be worthy of being drafted relatively high for a regular season
draft, but this is October and only champions will help you win your league. The Twins were led offensively by Justin Morneau who once again
topped 30 homeruns and 100 rbi’s BUT don’t draft him because he’s hurt and won’t be playing this offseason. Michael Cuddyer really came
through all season long with 32 homeruns and 94 rbi’s. Another player who is very underrated is Jason Kubel who batted .300 with 28
homeruns and 98 rbi’s for the season. I didn’t realize how good this team is offensively until I really studied their entire roster.
Joe Mauer is clearly the best catcher in all of baseball, the leader of this team and deserves to be taken as the top catcher and first
player off of the Twins. He had 28 homeruns and 96 rbi’s with an astonishing .444 obp and .365 batting average. If you’re looking for a cheap source of stolen
bases, high batting average and a ton of runs scored then Denard Span is your guy. I drafted this kid in my AL only auction league and he
exceeded expectations.
Their pitching staff is pretty shaky especially since their staff leader Scott Baker pitched in the Tuesday night game.
He had a respectable 15-9 record with a 4.37 era. Carl Pavano is pretty good despite the bad reputation he has. Going 14-12 with
147 strikeouts is definitely solid for a Twins team. Francisco Liriano is the wild card for this team. I believe that this is the guy who has
to come through big on the mound in order for this team to have a shot at advancing to the ALCS and possibly the World Series. If you’re looking for arguably the
best closer in the game today then look no further than Joe Nathan whose 2.10 era and 47 saves were tremendous and consistent as it comes in
baseball. Game 1 will be started by Brian Duensing who went 5-2 on the season with an era of 3.64. He’s going up against Cy Young candidate
C.C. Sabathia. I don’t think this will be a close game as long as the Yankee bats can get going. Stay away from drafting any Twins in the
early rounds of your drafts and don’t expect any of these guys to be advancing. If you have low expectations then your risk/reward factor will be in your favor.
AL Summary
My advice is that you should be drafting Yankees because they are going to be making it to the World Series. They should easily advance to the second round,
while the Red Sox and the Angels drain each other’s strength because they match up evenly against each other.
This article is the first part of a two part series, see Darren's 2009 MLB NL Fantasy Preview for more fantasy expert advice.
Darren Ogoff
Darren is a contributing member of the Fantasy Postseason user community and has several years of experience playing fantasy baseball. For comments or
fantasy advice, contact him at drogoff526 AT aol.com