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Perry's 2010 MLB Playoffs Rangers Fantasy Preview

It took the Rangers a bit longer to clinch the AL West than some might have expected. While that might be cause for pause when examining the team’s chances in October, it shouldn’t be. In what might be a first: I actually learned something from ESPN the Magazine. While the magazine usually inundates me with information like whether LeBron James prefers catsup or mustard (i.e. information that I forget as soon as I throw the magazine into the recycling bin), this month’s magazine had an article that suggested that coming into October on a hot streak is not that important. For example, in 2006 champion St. Louis Cardinals were 12-17 in their last 29 regular season games and their opponent, the Tigers, lost 15 of their last 26 games. That’s good news for the Rangers.

Because the Ballpark in Arlington is a hitters’ park, the team has usually tried to outslug their opponents. This season, they have a nice balance of power hitting, on-base guys, and a surprisingly good pitching staff. Like the Twins, the Rangers’ best offensive weapon – Josh Hamilton – is limping into the playoffs. Hamilton has not played since September 4 after breaking his a couple of ribs. He hopes to get some swings in before the playoffs, but his uncertain situation would cause me to lower him on my draft chart. Prior to his injury, Hamilton was having an MVP caliber season with 31 homers, 97 RBI, and a .361 average. Hamilton hit .300 against his former team, Tampa, with two homers in 20 at bats. If you can get him in the third round, he might be a steal.

As a member of the Angels, Vladimir Guerrero had always had success in Texas. Therefore, it makes sense that the 35-year-old would have a nice comeback year as a member of the Rangers. He is hitting .301 with 28 homers and 111 RBI after hitting just 15 homers in his last year with Los Angeles. One might have expected Guerrero to slow down in the dog days of Texas summer, but Vlad the Impaler has hit .322 in September. Guerrero has been a postseason star over the last two years with 21 hits in 52 at bats (.403 average), which more than makes up for the futility he showed in his first three postseason performances.

Nelson Cruz’s 2010 campaign might be seen as a drop off from his breakout 2009 season in which he slammed 33 homers. Other than the fact that Cruz missed more games this season (limited to 100 games), his actual production has been better. Some of the hits that went yard for Cruz in 2009 have hit the fence so he has more doubles and fewer homers. Cruz has also seen his average rise to .310 after hitting .266 this year. The one split to pay attention to is that Cruz has hit .360 at the Ballpark and .267 on the road. Because of his injuries, he did not see the Rays. He also failed to hit above .250 against the Yankees and Twins.

The Rangers have a great hitting infield. Ian Kinsler has had a disappointing fantasy campaign because injuries have limited him to 97 games, but his overall numbers aren’t terrible. He is hitting .293 with nine homers and 45 RBI. Kinsler hit .400 in ten at bats against the Yankees. Shortstop Elvis Andrus showed that his 2009 rookie season wasn’t a fluke. Even though he showed decreased power in his sophomore season, Andrus has been a pest on the base paths and has stolen more than 30 bases for the second straight year. Third baseman Michael Young is a very consistent hitter, which is a factor fantasy owners should find valuable. He has faded some in the second half of the season (.260 vs. 301 before the break), but he has hit more than 20 homers for the second consecutive season and for the fourth time in his career. David Murphy is hitting .290 from the outfield and Mitch Moreland has held down first base since Justin Smoak was traded.

Smoak, a highly valued prospect, was traded to Seattle for Cliff Lee, who will start the first game of the Divisional series. Lee’s season has been divided evenly between the Mariners and Rangers, and he was actually more effective in Seattle. Nevertheless, in 13 starts with Texas, Lee has stuck out 88 batters in 111 innings with a 4.25 ERA. Lee has two wins in three starts against the Yankees, but lost all three games to the Rays. After getting skipped in the rotation at the beginning of September, Lee authored a pair of eight-inning, one-run wins. He was hit hard by the A’s in his last outing. Lee was terrific for the Phillies last year in the postseason (five starts, four wins, 1.56 ERA).

In game two, manager Ron Washington will give the ball to C.J. Wilson. In his first year in the rotation, the former closer provided a 3.15 ERA with 161 K’s in 194 innings. Wilson opened September with a pair of stinky starts, but has rebounded in his last two to beat the Mariners and Angels. The problem is that those two starts were against the Twins and Yankees. Wilson has an ERA higher than 5.40 against all three AL playoff teams, so he may be the Ranger starter than you want to pass on.

Colby Lewis has been one of the nicer stories in baseball and has given the Rangers the quality third starter they required. Lewis started his career with the Rangers in 2002, but missed three seasons due to arm troubles. He has come back with a vengeance in 2010 and struck out 192 batters in 196 innings. The flame throwing righty missed out on both the Yankees and Rays this season and was hit hard by the Twins (7.88 ERA in three starts). He still has a 3.72 ERA this season and might be able to surprise an AL East team. If the Rangers decide to go to a fourth starter, it will be Tommy Hunter who has a 3.19 ERA at home.

Unlike the Twins, the Rangers have no questions at the end of the bullpen. Neftali Feliz has closed all season and has tied the rookie record with 37 saves (tying Seattle’s Kazuhiro Sasaki). He has struck out 69 batters in 66.1 innings and has a sub 1.00 WHIP (0.90). The 22-year-old native of the Dominican Republic was off in July, but has rebounded in August and September, and has not given up a run this month. He is a combined three for four in save opportunities against the Rays, Yankees, and Twins. The Rangers also have a solid middle relief crew led by rookie Alexi Ogando. The rookie sports a 1.35 ERA in 40 innings and has only given up two runs at the Ballpark in 21.1 innings. He might get a vulture win or two.

***All stats through Saturday, September 26, 2010

Perry Missner provides content for Fantasy Postseason. He is also the lead writer and editor for College Fantasy Basketball Insider, a writer for the Fantasy Football Oasis, and the Secretary of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.


 






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