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Perry's 2010 MLB Playoffs Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Preview
What if I told you that Reds’ first baseman Joey Votto would be the top rated player for Fantasy Postseason leagues as we head into the last weekend of the season? You’d say I was crazy, wouldn’t you? Well, the playoffs this year are not going to feature players like Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and even Carlos Zambrano. Votto is the top player without regard to his team. He may not be a household name like Pujols, but a look at his numbers indicates that he should be. The 27-year-old Canadian is in the top three in the National League in all three Triple Crown stats. Sadly, he isn’t first in any of them, but his .323 average, 37 homers, and 111 RBI make for a breakout season. Votto has hit above .300 in every month since April and hammered the Phillies for 11 hits in 28 at bats this season (a .393 average). He has also hit above .300 against the Giants and Braves. As they took the NL Central away from the Cardinals, the Reds showed that they were not just a one-man team. Baseball teams rarely are. The problem for fantasy owners is that the Red lineup is incredibly balanced and it’s a credit to manager Dusty Baker that the team was able to produce. In addition to Votto, the Reds have five other players who hit at least 18 homers and six other players, including shortstop Orlando Cabrera, with 19 or more doubles. The second best hitter is likely outfielder Jay Bruce who, at 23 years old, figured out how to swing and not miss quite as much as his first two years in the big leagues. Bruce is hitting .278 after hitting .223 in 2009. He has hit 22 homers for the second consecutive year and now has 65 homers before his 24th birthday. Bruce has turned up the heat in the season’s second half with a .901 OPS after the All-Star break. The Reds would have to get to the second round to meet the Braves, but that is good news for Bruce who has just one hit in 18 at bats against Atlanta. Bruce has hit .194 against the Phillies, but had the best success against the pitching excellence of the Giants with a .304 average. Bruce did a lot of his damage this year against the Cubs and Astros. Brandon Phillips has anchored the Red offense for the last five seasons, but has seen his production dip in each of the last four seasons. He still has a fine balance of speed and power with 18 homers and 16 steals, but his 30-30 days seems to be past (he had one 30-30 season in 2006). The 29-year-old is hitting just .240 since the All-Star break. He battered the Giants (.433) but had troubles against the Phillies and Braves. Another hitter to watch is Drew Stubbs. Stubbs is two years older than Bruce but is in his first full season. He has walloped 22 homers but is hitting .253. Like many other Reds, he struggled against the Braves and Phillies, but hit the Giants well. Veterans on the comeback trail helped the Reds to their close to 90-win season. Players figured to have their best days behind them, including Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera, and Jonny Gomes, came back with a vengeance in 2010. Rolen is a 14-year veteran who last hit more than 20 homers in 2006. He has hit exactly 20 this year with a fine .290 average to go along with 84 RBI. Rolen has hit just three homers since the All-Star break and did little against his first team, the Phillies, going just 2-for-12. The third baseman did crush Brave pitching (.563) and had his fair share of success against the Giants (.357 with seven extra base hits in 28 at bats). Gomes is the somewhat rare right-handed batter who fares better against lefties. He is hitting .281 against southpaws this year and is hitting .266 overall. In 27 at bats against the Phillies, Gomes has just six hits and fared very poorly against the Braves (.154). Gomes did hit the Giants pretty well at .316 in 19 at bats. I like the 35-year-old Cabrera as a sneaky late round pick. He hasn’t had much postseason success in five October appearances, but I like the fact that he has hit 32 doubles. Of the eight likely postseason teams (heading into the final weekend of the season), Cincinnati has the weakest pitching staff. The ace of the staff is 24-year-old Johnny Cueto who has been the rare young pitcher to survive Dusty Baker. Maybe Baker has learned something from past problems (poor Mark Prior) and Cueto has thrown a career-high 185.2 innings this season. He has 12 wins with 138 K’s and a 3.64 ERA. In two starts against the Phillies, he allowed two earned runs (one unearned) in 15 innings. Cueto had problems against the Giants and Braves who each hit him for a 6.00 ERA or higher. Bronson Arroyo has been the innings eater of the staff and the Red offense has provided him with 17 wins. The former Red Sox pitcher made more than 30 starts for the sixth consecutive season and has thrown more than 200 innings in each of those seasons. Arroyo did not meet the Giants or Phillies this season and shut out the Braves for seven innings in his only start against Atlanta. Arroyo has been rounding into shape in September and has four straight quality starts. The third starter will either be Edinson Volquez or Homer Bailey. Volquez had a fine September. In four starts last month he had a 1.95 ERA with 31 K’s in 27.2 innings. Bailey is just 24 years old so his best days are probably in front of him. In the bullpen, Francisco Cordero has been one of the most consistent earners of saves over his career. Over the past seven seasons, he has at least 34 saves six times. This season he has converted 38 saves in 46 opportunities and vultured six wins. His ratios (4.00 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) are a bit high, but if you are in the market for saves (and think the Reds will win), he could be a player to draft. In the middle pen, Aroldis Chapman is the player to watch. He may not be someone to draft, but he did hit 105 MPH on the radar gun and has struck out 16 batters in 11.2 innings. Nick Masset has also been well used: he has appeared in 80 games and won four. ***All stats through Saturday, September 29, 2010 Perry Missner provides content for Fantasy Postseason. He is also the lead writer and editor for College Fantasy Basketball Insider, a writer for the Fantasy Football Oasis, and the Secretary of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |
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