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Perry's 2010 MLB Playoffs Twins Fantasy Preview

As baseball heads into its final week, it is time to start looking ahead to the best time of the year: no, not Christmas, the baseball playoffs! At Fantasy Postseason, the summers are long because there aren’t any postseasons from June to October, so we are raring to go for baseball. We’ll be profiling each of the eight teams as they clinch their bids.

As such, we start with the Minnesota Twins who were the first team to clinch their division. They once again overcame injuries and used timely hitting, surprise performances (like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano), and control pitching to push their way to the top of the AL Central for the second consecutive year. Other than Joe Mauer, this is not a team with superstars and even Mauer has been dinged up in the final stretch.

The Twins’ catcher has not played in a week because of knee soreness, but he should get some at bats as a designated hitter in the last week of the season to get his timing back. He is the best hitting catcher in baseball and one of the game’s best hitters, so if you were planning on drafting him, you had better do so early. Mauer is hitting .370 against the Rays this season and .304 against the Yankees, so he should have success in the first round. The 27-year-old did struggle against the Rangers (just .217 in 32 at bats). He has been so hot after the All-Star break (.383) that he should be a first round pick regardless of league format.

Usually, the second best hitter on the team would be Justin Morneau, but he has been out since July 7 after sustaining a concussion and he is not expected to return. That has left Young as Mauer’s protection and the 25-year-old has finally shown some of the gifts that made him a highly regarded prospect for the Rays. He is hitting .298 this season with 19 homers and 107 RBI’s. He hit .314 against his former club this year, but just .143 vs. the Yankees and .152 vs. the Rangers. I wouldn’t bet the farm on him, but he could make for a nice mid to late round value pick.

The Twins also have some decent secondary power options in Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and the seemingly ageless Jim Thome. In his first year as a Twin, Thome has hit 25 dingers and is hitting .280, his highest average since 2006. He is hitting .357 in September with seven homers. Thome has postseason experience, so he would make a nice mid-round pick. Kubel has been a consistent force in the Twins’ lineup over the last three years and has provided 20 homers and 87 RBI this season. While some wrist issues have caused him to tail off in September (just .158), Kubel has battered the Yankees to a tune of .458 with three homers in 15 at bats. Cuddyer hasn’t been quite as powerful as he was in 2009 (when he slammed 32 homers), but he has managed to capably take over at first base for Morneau. He has hit 14 homers (just five since the All-Star break) and knocked in 78 runs. Sadly, he has not had much success against the three likely playoff teams and is hitting only .182 against the Yankees in 22 at bats this year. Other Twins worth taking a look at include rookie third baseman Danny Valencia (hitting .324), Denard Span (who has 25 steals and 92 runs) and shortstop J.J. Hardy, who is the type of streaky hitter that could lead to fantasy league wins..

On the pitching side, Liriano has been the unquestioned stud of the staff. He has fully rebounded from Tommy John surgery and paced the team with 196 K’s in 185.1 innings. The powerful lefty has been hit hard in his last two outings, but at least that has decreased his inning total. Liriano only met the Rangers and Rays once apiece this season, but limited them to three combined runs over 14 innings. He allowed five runs to the Yankees over 13 innings in two starts.

Carl Pavano leads the team with 17 wins (a stat I don’t much care for, but seemingly always an important fantasy factor). The 34-year-old has hurled 214 innings, including a career high seven complete games. His 1.19 WHIP is his lowest since 2004, his last year with the Marlins, and he has only allowed 36 walks (a true Twin pitcher). Pavano has not faced the Yanks this season, but has five starts against the Rays and Rangers with two wins and two losses.

Liriano and Pavano are scheduled to pitch games one and two of the Divisional series and Brian Duensing will toe the rubber for game three. Duensing joined the Twins’ rotation in mid-July and has been a revelation. In his 12 starts, he has only allowed more than three runs once and has allowed just seven runs over his last 22 September innings. Against the playoff teams, Duensing saw most of his action out of the bullpen and was neither brilliant nor terrible against any of the other contenders. Nick Blackburn will be the fourth starter and he has been excellent over the last two months. In his last six starts, he has allowed a combined nine runs and pitched at least seven innings each time out.

The Twins have a deep bullpen with a slightly unsettled closing spot, which makes for treacherous drafting. Jon Rauch opened the season as the closer to replace Joe Nathan, who has missed the season with his own Tommy John surgery. He tallied 21 saves through July but hasn’t seen a save opportunity since the Twins brought Matt Capps aboard. The 6-foot-11 Rauch has only allowed two runs over his last 11.2 innings. Capps has converted 15 saves for the Twins (and 41 for the season including his time with the Nationals). He has never been one of the most dominant closers, but he gets the job done and has only blown two saves since coming to Minnesota. Capps has converted his last 11 saves chances. The Twins also have Brian Fuentes, who earned a save in his first appearance with the team on August 28. He has not seen a save opportunity since, but has not given up a run as a member of the middle relief crew. If your league is deep enough to mine for middle relievers, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are used often and are very effective.

***All stats through Saturday, September 25, 2010

Perry Missner provides content for Fantasy Postseason. He is also the lead writer and editor for College Fantasy Basketball Insider, a writer for the Fantasy Football Oasis, and the Secretary of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.


 






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