I came into this football season in three fantasy leagues. I made the playoffs in all three, and managed to win one of them in a week 17 super-bowl where I picked up three free agent wide receivers and a QB. I didn't deserve to win - I didn't have the best team. But that's what's so great about football. You don't need to have the best team to win, but you do need to be smart and calculating. I will be in a fantasy playoff fantasy league this year and like baseball, my strategy will be to calculate who will be playing the most games, and who on those teams will be relied on heavily to succeed.

I can easily write this article and tell you all how the top two teams in each conference will face off against each other in the conference finals with the winners meeting in the Super Bowl. But that requires no thinking, strategy or knowledge of what's really going on in football. My 6 year nephew can tell you that Drew Brees should be taken #1 overall, but what's the fun in that? You need to think about everything on a deeper level.

I always view fantasy players as investments. For example, Brett Favre is arguably the best QB of all time. He's on a Minnesota team which is the #2 seed and has a bye in the first round. Favre has had a great season and has a lot of great weapons at his disposal - Sidney Rice, Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shancoe, Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian. But would I draft Favre as a top 4 QB this off-season? For some reason my gut is telling me to stay away, unless I can get him as a good investment. If I can get him in the #7 thru 10 pick range, then I would have an interest in taking him - otherwise he will likely only disappoint me.

Ask yourselves these questions:
1. Which teams have been playing well in the second half of the season?
2. Which teams could be overrated and be upset early on?
3. What are the home/away records of all the teams in the playoffs?

After answering these questions you should map out how you think the whole playoffs are going to play out. Write down on a piece of paper which teams are going to be playing 4, 3 or 2 games. The teams that you don't think will be playing more than 1 game should be avoided early on in your draft.

Your league will be won by the team who takes players who end up playing the most games. Below is my bracket of how I think the road to the Super Bowl will unfold, beginning with the AFC.

AFC

The AFC seedings are as follows:
#1 Colts
#2 Chargers
#3 Patriots
#4 Bengals
#5 Jets
#6 Ravens

The Jets were 5-3 on the road this season and looked great in week 17 against the Bengals. I can't see the Bengals’ coaches coming up with a defensive scheme to stop the Jets running game. The Patriots were 8-0 at home this season and even though Wes Welker is out for the year, I believe that Julian Edelman will step up in his absence and play a similar role. The Ravens defense doesn't seem as strong as they were a few years ago. As much as I would love to see the Patriots lose this one, I just don't see it happening.

The Jets and the Patriots will come out of wildcard weekend - the Jets will end up playing at the Colts, with the Patriots playing at the Chargers. I don’t see the Jets/Colts game being even remotely close. Mark Sanchez doesn't have a strong enough arm to throw a decent looking deep ball. His throws have such arc on them that they easily resemble Chad Pennington’s throwing attempts, but with much less accuracy. The Jets may be able to run the ball, but not when they are playing from behind and have to throw it often; I don't see much success in this one for them. As for New England, they were 2-6 on the road this season, and seem very beatable. The Chargers, who were 7-1 at home this season, will continue this trend and knock off the Patriots.

The Colts hosting the Chargers in the AFC Championship game will be a great game to watch. These two teams are very similar. They both have outstanding QB’s in Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, along with stud wide receivers in Reggie Wayne and Vincent Jackson. Their tight ends are arguably the best two in pro football. Antonio Gates saw a return to his former self and Dallas Clark is so consistent. The running games on these teams are the weak parts of their offenses. Ladainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles share the load for the most part, and Joseph Addai isn't the best out there. This will be a great game, but I'm going with the upset. The Chargers advance to the Super Bowl.

NFC

The NFC seedings are as follows:
#1 Saints
#2 Vikings
#3 Cowboys
#4 Cardinals
#5 Packers
#6 Eagles

This conference is wide open in my opinion. The Saints seemed unbeatable for so long, but now I just don't think they will succeed. The Vikings are very similar in my opinion. They were 4-4 on the road - that's not a dominating statistic by any means. They beat up on the Giants in week 17, but the Giants are possibly the worst team in football right now. I know it's not that hard to say this, but the wild-card games will see the same results as week 17. The Packers and the Cowboys will advance relatively easily. Arizona has not played all that well at home (4-4), while the Packers were a great road team (5-3).

If the Cowboys and Packers advance, the Cowboys will go on the road to play the Vikings, while the Packers travel to New Orleans. I'm putting this out there - the Vikings and Saints both lose. The Vikings prediction isn't all that bold, but saying that the Saints lose might come back to haunt me. The margin of difference between every team in the NFL is very small, and I've seen things this season which lead me to believe that these two teams will lose.

Dallas will host Green Bay in the conference championship game and Dallas will come out victorious. The more I watch Dallas play, the more I'm really impressed with what I see. Jason Witten, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Tony Romo and Patrick Crayton all know their roles and do their jobs well. Green Bay is great and their time will come, but it just won't be this year. Donald Driver hasn't done much towards the end of the year and Greg Jennings had an off year for his standards. Jermichael Finley emerged as a serious threat, but their running game is something I can't endorse. I'm always putting my faith in Ryan Grant and it usually bites me in end. Therefore I'm betting against him.

If the playoffs play out like I think they will, then Dallas will be playing 4 games this post-season. San Diego and Green Bay will play 3 games, while New York, Indianapolis, and New England will play 2 games apiece. Cincinnati, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Arizona, New Orleans, and Minnesota will all be playing one game. Bold predictions I know, but who would still be reading this if I predicted that the Colts will play the Saints in the Super Bowl?

If you're still reading this, then you're probably asking yourself if Darren is endorsing not drafting any Saints or Vikings. The answer to that is that I'm just not going to overpay for them. If players from these teams fall to me and I determine that they are great value picks, then I will draft them easily. I can't bring myself to get so excited that I have Adrian Peterson or Drew Brees, only to be totally disappointed when these teams get eliminated.

Here would be my rankings entering the playoffs:

QB's

1. Phillip Rivers
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Tony Romo
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Tom Brady
7. Brett Favre
8. Kurt Warner
9. Carson Palmer
10. Donovan McNabb
11. Joe Flacco
12. Mark Sanchez
    

RB's

1. Darren Sproles
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Marion Barber
4. Thomas Jones
5. Ryan Grant
6. Joseph Addai
7. Pierre Thomas
8. Reggie Bush
9. Lawrence Maroney
10. Felix Jones
11. Ladainian Tomblinson
12. Cedric Benson
13. Beanie Wells
14. Brian Westbrook
15. Tim Hightower
16. Lesean McCoy
    

WR's

1. Reggie Wayne
2. Vincent Jackson
3. Miles Austin
4. Randy Moss
5. Larry Fitzgerald
6. Sidney Rice
7. Marques Colston
8. Greg Jennings
9. Donald Driver
10. Desean Jackson
11. Pierre Garcon
12. Robert Meachem
13. Percy Harvin
14. Malcolm Floyd
15. Patrick Crayton
16. Chad Ochocinco
17. Julian Edelman
18. Steve Breaston
19. Derrick Mason
20. Devery Henderson
21. Bernard Berrian
22. Jerricho Cotchery
23. Jeremy Maclin
24. Mark Clayton
25. Braylon Edwards
26. Laveranues Coles
27. Austin Collie
28. Anquan Boldin (Questionable)
29. Early Doucet
30. James Jones/Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)
    

TE's

1. Dallas Clark
2. Antonio Gates
3. Jason Witten
4. Jermichael Finley
5. Jeremy Shockey
6. Visanthe Shaincoe
7. Ben Watson
8. Brent Celek
9. Dustin Keller

DEF/Special Teams

1. Saints
2. Chargers
3. Cowboys
4. Patriots
5. Colts
6. Vikings
7. Packers
8. Ravens
9. Jets
10. Eagles
11. Cardinals
12. Bengals