2010 NFL Playoff Fantasy Sleepers

Perry's NFL Playoffs Fantasy Sleepers

The NFL Playoffs – fantasy style! For those of you (or us), who have once again come up empty in our efforts to win a regular season fantasy football championship, we have one more chance to attain the ultimate glory. As such, I figured I’d give you a guide to the sleepers in this season’s playoffs. The keys are winning and production. While I have no idea who will win from game to game, I can guess who might out-produce their draft status. One note before I start: I sometimes let my NFL rooting get in the way of my fantasy analysis. I am a Bear fan and a Packer hater, so take my Green Bay comments with a grain of salt.

AFC

1. WR Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts

Does the Colt offense even have a sleeper? Probably not, but this spot was a tossup between Pierre Garcon and Collie. Garcon’s hand injury worries me a bit, so I am going with the rookie out of BYU. Collie started the season slowly, but made the most of his appearances after Week 4 with five TD’s. Whichever team the Colts play will be concentrating on stopping Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, potentially leaving Collie open for a score.

2. TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

I know Gates is not a sleeper, but I didn’t think Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd will produce much in the Playoffs. Plus, you may not know what kind of damage Gates did down the stretch. In the last six games, he produced six TD’s, including one apiece in the last four games. I think that more than made up for his first 10 weeks in which he produced just two TD’s. Gates topped the 1000-yard barrier for the second time in his career and I think his hot streak will continue in the Playoffs.

3. RB Fred Taylor, New England Patriots

The obvious choice here is Julian Edelman who will be filling in for the injured Wes Welker, but I don’t like taking the obvious choice. Fred Taylor may not be the workhorse back that he once was, but he is not Fragile Freddy either. After missing the majority of the season with a knee injury, Taylor came back in Week 16 and ran with authority. He did lose a fumble in the finale against the Texans, but he should be the runner to own when the Pats take on the Ravens.

4. QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

In the Fantasy Postseason default scoring, passing TD’s are only worth three points, so quarterbacks are devalued somewhat from fantasy leagues that offer six- or even four-point TD’s. Nevertheless, quarterbacks will be taken early and often. Palmer may be one that will be overlooked. The seven-year veteran had a horrible game in the Meadowlands last week, but he’ll be able to redeem himself at home where he was a much better quarterback this year. The Jets will bring all kinds of crazy blitzes, but you can expect Palmer to coolly execute the Bengal gameplan.

5. WR Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets

The Jets are primarily a three-yard and a cloud of dust offense. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez should do little more than be a caretaker for the ball. He had 20 interceptions in his rookie year. However, Rex Ryan will look to take a few shots down the field and Cotchery should be the recipient. The sixth-year Jet ran a TD in against the Bengals and had five receptions. The Bengals do have excellent cornerbacks, but if Cotchery can break free once or twice, he could be a decent sleeper.

6. TE Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens

It may seem like Heap is always injured, but that’s more a perception than a reality. In 2009, he played all 16 games for the sixth time in his nine year career. He isn’t the 70-reception player he was in 2005 and 2006, but he makes for a nice safety valve for Joe Flacco. The first time the Ravens played the Patriots, Heap had four receptions for 46 yards. Heap played very well in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 and 16) with four TD’s, so he has come through for fantasy players before. He will do it again.

NFC

1. RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints

The Saints’ offense is so diversified that trying to pick any one player, other than Drew Brees, is a matter of picking one’s poison. With Pierre Thomas still battling rib problems, I can see Bush getting more involved in the running game with his usual flare for the screen pass. The USC alum did have five rushing TD’s despite carrying the ball just 70 times this season, and he had a 5.6 yard per carry average. Bush was used as a runner more on the road than at the Super Dome, but I think the Saints will reverse that trend in the Playoffs.

2. WR Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings

Harvin isn’t so much a sleeper because he was a first round pick this year and scored TD’s via reception and kick return. However, he may slightly undervalued because the Vikings have a great running game and a quarterback who garners his own press section. You can bet that the aged quarterback will take some shots down the field and Harvin may get a reverse or two to befuddle the defense. There’s no substitute for speed, especially in domes, and Harvin has it spades.

3. TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

With Terrell Owens out of town, I thought Witten would be the top tight end in fantasy football. His numbers at the end of the season reflect a nice season: 94 receptions for 1030 yards. The problem is that he caught just two TD’s. Witten has never been a Gates-like presence in the endzone and has never topped seven TD’s in a season, but he is the Cowboys most consistent receiving target. He had six receptions for 76 yards and a TD in Week 17 against the Eagles and I think he’ll be able to garner those numbers again in the rematch.

4. RB Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are primarily a passing team. However, I have always thought that given a chance, the coaching staff which came up through the Pittsburgh system would want to establish a running game. Wells saw limited action against the Packers last weekend, but he should get the ball a bit in the rematch. Arizona will likely use the aerial assault to set up the running game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wells get 100+ yards.

5. WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers

Jennings’ fantasy season was a disappointment to everyone but me. That said, if I were to draft a Packer (and I would never dare), it would be Jennings. The fourth year receiver did have 1113 yards, but only figured in four TD’s. As far as I know, he didn’t have an injury this season (something that plagued his early career), but he was the focus of opposing defenses. While I wish him the worst of luck, I think he could be in for a nice playoff run and should be Aaron “Duck” Rodgers main recipient.

6. TE Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles

By any measure, Celek had a breakout season. I always thought the Eagles with Donovan McNabb should feature the tight end more, but it appeared that L.J. Smith wasn’t the guy to replace Stephen Brominski of Syracuse lore. Enter Brent Celek. The third year tight end had 76 receptions for 971 yards and eight TD’s. Even in a meaningless game in which the Eagles called off the dogs early, Celek had seven catches for 96 yards. The Cowboys will be concentrating on DeSean Jackson and I think Celek will get his share of receptions.

Perry Missner is the editor and lead writer for CollegeFantasyHoopsInsider.com. He is also the Secretary of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He’d be happy to listen to our criticisms (or even compliments) of this column at perry@cfhinsider.com.