October 7th, 2009
There may be some bleary-eyed people this morning who got invested in last night’s one-game playoff between the Twins and Tigers. I had already started writing about the Tigers last week, when it became apparent that maybe I was being a bit hasty. Will that excellent 163rd game overshadow the playoffs? And aren’t one-game playoffs excellent? Much like the greatness of the NCAA tournament, but I digress. We have the baseball playoffs yet to go and to lend a helping hand to those people who are drafting fantasypostseason teams, I thought I’d take two players from each of the participants. One is a player who may be undervalued and the other might be overvalued. Feel free to agree or disagree by writing to me at perry@chfinsider.com. By the way, please draft Albert Pujols first. He is the best fantasy player and I have gone so far to draft him first in fantasy football drafts as well. Well, maybe not that far, but you get the idea. [Please note this report was written completely before the Wednesday games started]
Los Angeles Dodgers
Undervalued: SS Rafael Furcal
Furcal’s overall numbers look pretty pedestrian compared to his relatively steady production throughout his career. He hit a career low .269 and stole just 12 bases. The positives are that he stayed healthy for the entire year and had 613 at bats, and that he finished the season on a strong kick. He hit .330 after August 31 and has 12 extra base hits in September (eight doubles, two triples, two homers). Runs are an underappreciated fantasy stat and Furcal, batting at the top of the Dodger lineup had 92 runs and an on-base percentage of .335. He also hit .303 against the Cardinals this year.
Overvalued: OF Manny Ramirez
This one hurts because Manny is one of my favorite players and the only guy that I will wait to watch take his hacks. His hitting motion is so fluid and dangerous, but it appears that he needed his “help” as a 37-year-old to maintain his edge over opposing pitchers. Ramirez hit just .218 after August 31 and had just four homers. Against the Cardinals, he hit just .143 in 28 at bats. He was still able to get on base and had a on-base percentage of .407 in September because of his 19 walks, but when you draft the Man-Ram you expect big power. Despite his manly charge in the 2008 second half, I’d leave him be.
St. Louis Cardinals
Undervalued: OF Matt Holliday
Holliday should never leave the National League again. While some people point to Holliday’s Cardinal resurgence (.353 average, 1.023 OPS after leaving the A’s) as an example of how the NL is inferior, it is worth noting that Holliday had spent the entirety of his career in the NL and moved to a better hitters’ home park with a better lineup. To wit, he hit .337 after August 31 and knocked in 23 runs. Against the Dodgers, he hit .278 with a homer and five RBI in 36 at bats. While Holliday will likely be overshadowed by Pujols in the playoffs, he may have similar value in the end.
Overvalued: OF Ryan Ludwick
Feast or famine: three words that define Ludwick as a hitter. After his breakout 2008 season, which included some hellacious streaks (and some games in which I had a better chance of getting a hit), Ludwick provided slightly less in 2009. He was limited to 139 games, but ended up with 22 homers, 97 RBI, and a .265 average. Not terrible numbers, but not the 37 homers, 119 RBI, and .299 average of 2008. Ludwick hit just seven homers after the All-Star break and hit just .192 in 26 at bats against Dodger pitching (with no homers).
Philadelphia Phillies
Undervalued: SS Jimmy Rollins
Rollins had his worst batting average (.250) since 2002, but that was mainly due to a horrific first half in which he hit .229 and a mediocre .642 OPS. In the second half, he was more like the Jimmy Rollins we have come to know and trust over the past decade with a .272 average, .495 slugging percentage and 14 homers. Oddly, he had similar amount of runs and steals in the first and second half despite the disparity in hitting. Nevertheless, trust the career numbers when it comes to Rollins (.274 average, .439 slugging) and make him an upper-to-mid-round value pick.
Overvalued: OF Raul Ibanez
Prior to the All-Star break, Ibanez made boosters of “American League is the superior league” chant look like geniuses. He crushed National League pitching for 22 homers and a .309 average with 60 RBI. Reality set in during the second half of the season which saw Ibanez’s numbers fall to .232 with 12 homers and 33 RBI. After a horrific August (.193), Ibanez did comeback a bit in September (.264), but his overall numbers (34 homers, 93 RBI) belie his fantasy value at this point. He had a .304 average in 23 at bats against the Rockies, but just one homer.
Colorado Rockies
Undervalued: SS Troy Tulowitzki
To be completely honest, I doubt if Tulowitzki is actually undervalued. However, like Rollins, his overall numbers may not be representative of how excellent he was in the second half. The Rocky shortstop took off after the All-Star break with a .344 average, .622 slugging percentage and 55 RBI. He had 16 homers before and after the break, and split his 20 steals nearly in half during the season. The Rockies seem like fairly heavy underdogs against the Philles, but you should get some value out of Tulo, especially when the Rockies play at Coors (where he hit .326 with a .597 slugging percentage). The Philly pitching kept him to a .200 average, but he did hit a triple and homer off of them.
Overvalued: OF Brad Hawpe
While the Rockies were rampaging through September and early October to clinch the Wild Card and put a scare into the Dodgers, Hawpe was the one player who did not contribute much. He hit just .208 after August 31 with four homers and ten RBI. His overall numbers - .285, 23 homers, 86 RBI – are right in line with his career, but such an extended second half slump would give me pause when drafting. Hawpe did hit .278 with four doubles against Philly pitching, but hit just .243 against left-handed pitching. The Rockies could make a 2006-like run through the Playoffs, but let someone else draft Hawpe.
Los Angeles Angels
Undervalued: OF Bobby Abreu
The 35-year-old Abreu takes a lot of heat for what he isn’t (a dominant power hitter) and he gets overlooked for what he is (one of the most consistent hitters throughout the past decade). Abreu has knocked in over 100 runs for seven straight seasons and is rarely far off his career .299 average. He has had the fortune of playing for a series of good teams and the 2009 Angels are no different. Abreu hit just 15 homers this season, but nine came after the break. He hit .314 against Red Sox in 35 at bats and three extra base hits. Not exceptional numbers, but he’s a fine player.
Overvalued: OF Juan Rivera
In somewhat limited playing time, Rivera has shown he could hit with power. The 31-year-old Venezuelan (a countryman of Abreu) hit a career-high 25 homers with 88 RBI in 2009, mirroring his breakout 2006 numbers. Like other members of the overvalued list, the majority of Rivera’s damage was done prior to the All-Star break when he hit 15 of his homers (eight in a spectacular June). After the break, he cooled off to nine homers and was especially frigid in September, when he hit just .198. Rivera did turn it on in October with four hits in 11 at bats, but he has just a .246 average in previous postseasons with one homer in 69 at bats.
Boston Red Sox
Undervalued: OF Jacoby Ellsbury
Undervalued: OF Jacoby Ellsbury
If the 2008 Red Sox season was the breakout of Dustin Pedroia (and it was), then the 2009 season featured a breakout of Ellsbury who led the league with 70 stolen bases. The 26-year-old also hit .301 with 27 doubles, ten triples, and eight homers while improving his on-base percentage to .355. Whereas most Boston hitters hit valleys and troughs during the season, Ellbury hit no lower than .287 in any month (and no higher than .313). He also stole no less than eight bases in any month. Granted, Ellsbury didn’t do much in the 2008 Playoffs (.188 in 32 at bats), but he should be a force this year.
Overvalued: SP Josh Beckett
Heretofore, I have concentrated solely on hitters. With most of the Red Sox hitters closing the season in style, it is time to switch to the mound. In his first two postseason experiences, Beckett was one of the most dominant pitchers in Playoff history. He had three shutouts in nine starts in helping the 2003 Marlins and 2007 Red Sox win the World Series. Last year, however, he allowed 14 runs in 14.1 innings. In 2009, he closed the season on a cold streak and had a 4.53 ERA after the All-Star break. Against the Angels, Beckett gave up seven runs in 14 innings and received a loss and a no-decision in this two starts. It’s tempting to remember his past success, but I’d concentrate on his current lack thereof.
New York Yankees
Undervalued: DH Hideki Matsui
Much like the Red Sox, it is hard to find an undervalued Yankee. The Bronx Bombers get continual media coverage, but amongst the A-Rods and Jeters, there is a Godzilla. Matsui had a nice comeback season as a full-time DH with 28 homers and 90 RBI. Granted, if the Yankees make the World Series, his value will be somewhat diminished when the games take place at the NL park. That, however, is putting the cart before the horse. Matsui hit .325 in September and had 14 homers before and after the All-Star break.
Overvalued: SP C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia’s first season in pinstripes was a successful one: he won 19 games, threw 230 innings, and had a 3.37 ERA. He also struck out as many batters (197) as he allowed to get hits. C.C.’s past regular season success is well known and, unfortunately, so to is his lack of success in the Playoffs. In five previous Playoff starts, Sabathia has a 7.92 ERA and 22 walks in 25 innings. Those past seasons were not with the Yankees (2001 and 2007 with the Indians and 2008 with the Brewers), but big lefty has some proving to do. He did dominate the Twins (seven innings, one run) in their one meeting this year.
Minnesota Twins
Undervalued: 1B Mike Cuddyer
Could it be that a former AL MVP was holding Cuddyer back all of these years? With 2007 MVP Justin Morneau ensconced at first base, Cuddyer had to burn up his tread in the outfield. He suffered through an injury plagued 2008 season, but bounced back with a career year (32 homers, 94 RBI) in 2009. He has 18 of those dingers after the break and hit a robust .319 when starting at Morneau’s former position. Cuddyer was flummoxed by Yankee pitching (.149 in 27 at bats), but has hit .347 in past postseasons. The Twins may not be long for the 2009 Playoffs, but if you are to take one, it might as well be Cuddyer.
Overvalued: C Joe Mauer
I know what you are thinking: maybe I’ll have chicken salad for lunch. No? Oh, you were thinking how could this year’s prohibitive favorite for the AL MVP be overvalued? Well, first off, I dislike catchers for fantasy purposes. They rarely play in all the games and often get hurt. Sure, Mauer is an outlier in my dislike with his gaudy .365 average and 28 homers. He even didn’t fade much in the second half with a .358 average and 13 homers, but I will hold onto my theory nonetheless. Just know this: don’t overpay for Mauer even though he hit .345 off of Yankee pitching with three homers.
Perry Missner
Perry is a contributing member of the Fantasy Postseason user community and is the lead writer and editor of College Fantasy Hoops Insider. He wrote about baseball this past season for Sports Buff. For comments or
fantasy advice, contact him at perry@chfinsider.com.